Phoenix’s divergence suggests more resilient local fundamentals—migration, job growth, and supply constraints. Nationally, median home prices were down ~0.6 % and pending sales were collapsing ~31 %, indicating broader weakness. The relative strength tempers downside risk in Phoenix-centric holdings. From tax revenue projections, this resilience helps sustain municipal forecasts. Policymakers may point to this in justifying infrastructure or housing policy. For value stability, the local cushion provides greater breathing room than many other U.S. markets.
Vestar, a leading shopping center developer, announced a 120,000-square-foot expansion of Queen Creek Marketplace, bringing national tenants such as Sprouts Farmers Market and HomeGoods to the area. The $60 million project broke ground in late 2024 and will add more than 500 permanent retail jobs, reflecting Queen Creek’s 8% annual population growth. The expansion is projected to generate over $2.5 million in additional yearly sales tax revenue. Recent legislation supporting retail anchor development has facilitated this process. Vestar is also behind Tempe Marketplace and Desert Ridge, indicating a pattern of regional retail reinvestment. The project features drought-resistant landscaping and smart parking technologies for efficiency. The expanded center is expected to foster community connectivity and support local small businesses.
The Scottsdale City Council recently approved an expansion to the Ritz-Carlton Paradise Valley Resort, increasing its residential villas and luxury suites. The $2 billion master-planned community now encompasses over 120 acres with a blend of hotel, branded residences, and retail. The development, led by Five Star Development, is designed by SB Architects and Whitespace Ltd. Wealth managers note the branded residence model enhances estate value and liquidity for affluent buyers. The resort’s expansion supports Scottsdale’s transient occupancy tax collections, with legislative incentives for mixed-use luxury projects. The sustainability features include extensive desert landscaping and energy-efficient systems. This project follows Five Star’s trend of upscale, multi-phased communities in the region. The community impact includes high-end employment opportunities and increased tourism-driven economic activity.
Q2 2025 data from Redfin and the Paradise Valley Assessor’s Office reveal that 62% of residential sales closed in cash, a 9-point increase from last year. The median luxury home price rose to $3.24M, up 5.1% year-over-year. For wealth managers, the predominance of cash purchases reflects active capital redeployment and may influence appraisal values for portfolio rebalancing. Taxwise, higher valuations increase exposure to capital gains, especially for legacy estates. No significant local code changes were introduced, but Paradise Valley continues to invest in undergrounding utilities and expanding LIDAR-based flood mapping, both of which protect asset value against climate and regulatory shocks. Smart home automation remains a key feature in new builds, appealing to privacy-focused buyers.
On June 18, 2025, the Mesa City Council unanimously adopted new transit-oriented development (TOD) zoning overlays along the Valley Metro light rail corridor. The policy allows for increased height (up to 12 stories), relaxed parking minimums, and expedited approval for projects meeting green building standards. This creates opportunities for ground-up development and redevelopment in targeted opportunity zones, potentially enhancing asset liquidity for private capital and REIT portfolios. The zoning shift aligns with recent IRS clarifications on qualified opportunity funds, allowing for more flexible tax deferral strategies. Regulatory certainty and green infrastructure requirements also support future-proof value and environmental compliance, dovetailing with Mesa’s smart-city initiatives targeting walkability and energy efficiency.
The Cromford Market Index for Metro Phoenix registered 103.4 as of July 2025, indicating a technically balanced market with neither buyers nor sellers holding clear leverage. Transaction volumes for luxury properties ($2M+) were flat year-over-year, while inventory in the $800K–$1.5M bracket rose 14%. For high-net-worth portfolios, balanced markets enable strategic repositioning or phased asset liquidation with minimized slippage. Steady fundamentals support reliable property tax planning and smooth transitions for 1031 exchanges or stepped-up basis events. No major legislative shifts are expected this quarter, but ongoing review of HOA disclosure rules may affect due diligence timelines. Long-term value is underpinned by sustained population inflows and expanding digital infrastructure initiatives in Chandler and Peoria.
On July 1, 2025, the Arizona State Legislature passed HB2830, reducing the primary property tax assessment ratio for residential property from 10% to 9.2% for the 2026 tax year. The measure, supported by the Arizona Association of Realtors, is projected to lower average annual tax bills by 4–6% across Maricopa and Pinal Counties, directly enhancing after-tax returns for property holders and trusts. For wealth management, this regulatory shift boosts net yield potential, particularly for family offices and estate structures. The legislation introduces compliance checkpoints for homestead exemptions and strengthens anti-fraud oversight. From a long-term value angle, the adjustment could modestly improve affordability and transaction volume without destabilizing municipal revenue bases. The bill is also designed to offset fiscal impacts via targeted allocations to smart infrastructure funds statewide.
Tucson posted a median home price of $356,000 in August 2025, increasing 5.1% year-over-year, while inventory remains near 3.1 months of supply. Job growth in the metro stood at 2.7%, led by aerospace manufacturing and bioscience labs, underpinning long-term housing demand. For portfolio managers, Tucson offers relative affordability compared to Phoenix, diversifying geographic exposure. Pima County’s property tax rolls reflect modest upward pressure, important for estate planning. Local regulations on water assured-supply designations are reshaping developer obligations in peripheral communities. Tucson’s 20-year population projection points to 15% growth, ensuring sustained demand, while sustainability efforts include expanded solar adoption across municipal buildings, reinforcing environmental resilience.
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Public Safety as an Asset Class: The New Scottsdale AdvantageIn today’s Smart City economy, safety isn’t simply about peace of mind—it’s becoming a measurable, marketable asset class. Scottsdale is proving that public safety can be engineered into the fabric of
The Emerging Landscape: Digital Twins + Efficiency as Value SignalsWithin smart-city discourse and proptech circles, digital twins are evolving from novelty to near necessity. These virtual replicas of physical assets—fed by IoT sensors, performance data, and Nice to meet you! I’m Katrina Golikova, and I believe you landed here for a reason.
I help my clients to reach their real estate goals through thriving creative solutions and love to share my knowledge.
